归档： Publications

MARKET INSIGHT – November 2020

Waiting has been pointless, and the feeling of déjà-vu cannot be ignored.

A writer faces many constraints when drafting a monthly newsletter. Political events are just one consideration, especially when the event in question occurs early on in the period.
The US election led us to delay…

MARKET INSIGHT – October 2020

Market turmoil returns as the US election approaches

Last month, we said that the easy part was over for the equity markets, after a sharp rally since March 2020.
This observation dovetailed with our intention to maintain a…

MARKET INSIGHT – September 2020

We’ve got through the easy part. Now what?

If we look back on the pessimism that prevailed in the spring, summer 2020 was full of surprises for both the economy and the financial markets. Many, often dismal, forecasts proved to be…

MARKET INSIGHT – July 2020

Consolidation in June in an “exceptional” quarter for equities!

In essence, the general situation has not changed over the past few weeks.

On the economic front, the signs of recovery remain in place, endorsing our view of…

MARKET INSIGHT – May 2020

Why common sense matters amid persistent uncertainty

After the largest contraction in several decades in March, stock markets – and the S&P 500 in particular – saw the sharpest jump since 1991 in April.
These erratic shifts indicate a prevailing sense of uncertainty that may leave international investors wondering how to cope with what is a historic crisis in many respects.
When panic takes hold of the markets, as it was the case in February and March, we can tend to…

MARKET INSIGHT – April 2020

Disruption reigns supreme on the markets

What remains to be written about March 2020, which will no doubt go down in the annals of economics and finance?
The plunge of asset prices says it all: frightened by the spread of Covid-19 and the ensuing economic uncertainty, investors have given way to panic. The ability of price mechanisms to…

MARKET INSIGHT – March 2020

Fear returns to the markets with a vengeance – as panic

At first, market participants were reassured by mounting evidence that the epidemic was being brought under control in China and this drove risk assets to new highs. Then fears intensified when it was confirmed that the virus had spread to other regions, especially Europe, leading to a sharp fall in stock markets and a retreat to the most secure assets, bonds in particular.

If we take a closer look at market behaviour since mid-January…

MARKET INSIGHT – February 2020

Does excessive anxiety stiffle fear? Part II

Last month we examined fear, the mechanisms that feed it and its impact on the financial markets. Given the friction between Tehran and
the United States and the new coronavirus outbreak in China, January gave us much food for thought in this regard. The desire professed by both Iran and Washington to limit the threat of escalation seems to have led investors to…